A simple, easy-to-use formula to make sure you never run out of cash
As a financial columnist, I
get asked the same heartfelt question over and over: “How do I make sure I
don’t outlive my money?” And that makes sense. Surveys confirm that the No. 1
worry among older Americans is running out of cash. Fortunately, financial
planners have come up with sound ways to prevent this. Collected here are their
key rules for maintaining a livable income for life, plus case studies that
show how to put these general rules into action. The goal is your peace of mind
— knowing that you’re getting the most from the money you’ve saved and that
you’ll always have enough.
The
Magic Number
The key to long-term
planning is knowing one essential number: how much money you can afford to
spend annually. From there, you can adjust your expenses to fit.
You may be tempted to
reverse the order — estimate your future expenses, then adjust your investment
assumptions to make that spending appear possible. But that’s wishful thinking:
a hope that big investment returns will rescue your budget. It leads to overspending
early on, and regret later.
Instead, let’s focus on the
real, guaranteed money you’ll have. There are two main sources:
- Your
personal savings and investments.
- Your
guaranteed income from other sources.
Key Steps
Step
1: Tally Your Guaranteed Income
The most common source
is Social
Security,
which you may already be collecting. (If you’re not, get an estimate by calling
Social Security or by opening a My Social Security account at ssa.gov.) You
might also have a pension or annuity. If you own a reliable rental property,
include the amount of rent you receive after expenses.
Step
2: Estimate Your Income from Savings
How much annual income can
you prudently take from your savings and investments? To get the answer,
there’s a surprisingly simple rule of thumb:
- Add
up the current value of your spendable assets, such as bank accounts, mutual
funds, stocks and bonds. Include both retirement and nonretirement savings.
- Subtract
from that total a cash cushion to help cover near-term expenses.
- Then
take 4 percent of what remains.
That’s the “safe” amount of
your assets that financial
planners say
you can afford to spend in the first year of retirement without running the
risk that your savings will run out. In each subsequent year, take the same
dollar amount plus an increase for inflation.
Example: Say you have
$100,000 invested (plus a cash cushion). In the first year of retirement you
could spend $4,000 of that money. If inflation is running at 3 percent, your
second-year withdrawal would be $4,120 — the first-year amount plus an
inflation increase. Follow this pattern in each future year.
Under this system, known as
the “4 percent rule,” your savings should last at least 30 years and probably
more. That forecast is based on the pioneering work of planner William Bengen,
who tested 30-year spending rates against the historical returns of U.S. stocks
and Treasury bonds. Some years the markets are up and some years they’re down,
but the 4 percent rule takes that into account. As long as you keep withdrawing
a steady amount of money, plus increases for inflation, you won’t run out. This
rule would have protected your annual income even during 30-year periods that
included the Great Depression of the 1930s and Great Stagflation of the 1970s.
In better periods, savings lasted for many years more.
Step
3: Total Your Income
Add that “safe” 4 percent
amount to your annual guaranteed income. For example, if you’re due $20,000
from Social Security and take $4,000 from a $100,000 nest egg, you’ll have
$24,000 that you can safely use for living expenses, including any taxes.
Step
4: Set Your Budget
Finally, divide your expected
yearly income by 12 to get your available monthly cash. And that’s it. Don’t
worry about inflation; your income should keep up with inflation, thanks to
Social Security’s cost-of-living increases and the annual increases you take
from savings.
Special
Factors
You’re Married
Calculate your spendable income three ways: once as a couple, once assuming that you die first, and once assuming that your spouse dies first. Don’t skip this analysis! Couples generally get two Social Security checks — one per spouse. The survivor will get only one. If you get a pension, it, too, might go down or go away when you die. Each spouse should know what might change after the other’s death.
You’re a Homeowner
Worried that these numbers
won’t fund a decent standard of living? You might want to tap your home equity.
Home equity loans, however, can be hard for retirees to get. Instead, if you want to stay put, you might get a reverse mortgage: a loan against your home with no payments due until you leave it permanently. The debt is usually settled via proceeds from your home’s sale. Costs are high: If your house is worth $260,500 — the median U.S. price — a $50,000 credit line might carry $13,000 in one-time fees. (That money comes from your home equity, not your pocket.) Another option: Take in a renter. Or you could downsize, adding your home-sale proceeds to your investments.
You Fear Stocks
The 4 percent rule rests on
the premise that you invest about half of your nest egg in low-cost funds —
index mutual funds or exchange-traded funds — that hold big-company stocks and
track the market’s moves. The other half is in Treasury bond funds. If you also
hold funds with smaller stocks, Bengen says it’s safe to start at 4.5 percent.
If you avoid stocks,
however, and own only bonds and CDs, 4 percent is too high. Your initial safe
withdrawal rate is more like 3 percent, says economist Wade Pfau of the
American College of Financial Services in Bryn Mawr, Pa. You might also start
with that number if you retire early or own individual stocks, which are
riskier than market-tracking mutual funds.
On the other hand, you might go higher. The original 4
percent rule was designed to protect you from the worst of times, says
financial planner Jonathan Guyton of Edina, Minn. But most 30-year periods do
just fine, and you might find that you’re skimping while money piles up. Guyton
suggests starting with 5 or 5.5 percent. But do that, he says, only if you have
at least 60 percent of your investments in stocks and you’re willing to cut
back a little — say, 10 percent of your planned annual withdrawal — when
markets fall. Five percent also makes sense if you want only 20 years of income
— for example, if you don’t quit work until you turn 75.
(Originally
published in The AARP Monthly Bulletin.)